Fickle-Fibrosis
0x3d8a89a20aa73fba0f30d080e8120de9f9555724
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
56
Open notional
$483.47
Total PnL
$6.14
Realised
$3.51
Win rate
58%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 56- YES
Will "The Odyssey" make it into the IMDb Top 250?
102 shares @ 74.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$102.19
$25.79
- NO
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
50 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$49.88
$0.27
- NO
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
50 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$49.88
$0.23
- NO
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
50 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$49.88
$0.33
- NO
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
50 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$49.83
$0.17
- NO
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
50 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$49.83
$0.23
- NO
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
50 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$49.73
$0.07
- NO
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?
25 shares @ 73.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$20.99
$3.07
- YES
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?
22 shares @ 4.6¢·now 79.5¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$17.10
$16.12
- YES
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?
100 shares @ 3.6¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.50
$7.93
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.03Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 18, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
58% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
21 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $43.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 00:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.