Rotating-Fault
0x405b345a0d76d362e9c81f1462d46b01290e755c
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
35
Open notional
$5.5K
Total PnL
$223.66
Realised
$4.49
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
1433 shares @ 88.0¢·now 96.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.4K
$118.56
- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
1100 shares @ 91.7¢·now 95.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.0K
$39.70
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
300 shares @ 84.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$262.50
$10.50
- YES
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
300 shares @ 65.3¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$259.49
$63.55
- NO
Will the Bank of Korea cut by 50 bps or more at the August 2026 meeting?
222 shares @ 96.5¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 26, 2026$222.07
$7.50
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
200 shares @ 92.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$185.00
$1.00
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 90.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$183.00
$3.00
- NO
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
200 shares @ 89.4¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$179.90
$1.15
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
200 shares @ 80.9¢·now 75.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$150.88
$-10.92
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
150 shares @ 94.9¢·now 99.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$148.67
$6.30
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill no one dissent the July Fed decision?$38.92Jul 28, 05:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?$34.00Jul 28, 05:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?$0.00Jul 28, 01:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?$0.00Jul 27, 05:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$0.00Jul 27, 01:58 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Enzo Fernandez join Atletico Madrid?$18.74Jul 25, 21:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Enzo Fernandez join Atletico Madrid?$18.05Jul 25, 14:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 27, 2026?$20.00Jul 25, 09:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$20.11Jul 24, 22:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?$44.02Jul 24, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$2.19Jul 24, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$14.20Jul 24, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027?$27.82Jul 24, 22:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shai Gilgeous-Alexander be on the cover of NBA 2K27?$5.00Jul 24, 18:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Cade Cunningham be on the cover of NBA 2K27?$10.15Jul 24, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$32.50Jul 24, 02:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $23.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 05:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.