Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027?
Probability
34¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$845.30
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5980h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 12.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5980.0h
- 20:01SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5980h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 34¢.
Biggest hourly move: -12.5pp at 2d ago (to 28¢).
Show all 28 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:00 · +4.0pp → 34¢
- 17:00 · +7.0pp → 34¢
- 16:00 · +6.5pp → 34¢
- 11:00 · +3.5pp → 34¢
- 09:00 · +3.0pp → 34¢
- 07:00 · +3.0pp → 34¢
- 03:00 · +5.5pp → 35¢
- 00:00 · +3.5pp → 35¢
- 22:00 · +3.5pp → 35¢
- 21:00 · +4.0pp → 35¢
- 1d ago · +7.0pp → 35¢
- 1d ago · +7.0pp → 35¢
- 1d ago · +7.0pp → 35¢
- 1d ago · +7.0pp → 35¢
- 1d ago · +7.0pp → 35¢
- 1d ago · +3.5pp → 34¢
- 1d ago · +4.5pp → 34¢
- 1d ago · +4.5pp → 34¢
- 1d ago · +5.5pp → 34¢
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 34¢
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 34¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 34¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 34¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 34¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 34¢
- 2d ago · -8.0pp → 34¢
- 2d ago · -11.5pp → 31¢
- 2d ago · -12.5pp → 28¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryDepartment of the treasuryTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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