Informal-Musicmaking
0x4164f158b72efa73f2f040d9eedcc420605ec6bd
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$22.25
Total PnL
$-10.10
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
25 shares @ 24.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$6.38
$0.38
- YES
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao?
50 shares @ 10.0¢·now 12.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$6.00
$1.00
- YES
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
5 shares @ 94.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$4.97
$-0.03
- YES
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
7 shares @ 75.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.90
$-0.10
- YES
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
11 shares @ 44.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
10 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 17, 2024$0.00
$-5.50
- YES
Will the Republican candidate win Iowa by 8.0-9.0%?
5 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.40
- YES
Will the Republican candidate win Iowa by 9.0-10.0%?
5 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.45
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao?$5.13Jun 2, 17:52 UTC
- REDEEMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?$5.18Jun 1, 12:15 UTC
- REDEEMStarmer out by May 19, 2026?$6.86May 20, 07:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?$6.18May 19, 09:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?$5.01May 19, 09:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Australia win Eurovision 2026?$5.56May 17, 03:39 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?$5.33May 16, 23:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 19, 2026?$1.00May 16, 23:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?$0.05May 16, 23:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?$1.24May 16, 22:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?$10.04May 16, 14:19 UTC
- REDEEMStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$10.49May 16, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Australia win Eurovision 2026?$5.02May 14, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Finland win Eurovision 2026?$5.14May 14, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?$13.32May 14, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?$5.00May 14, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?$5.00May 14, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by December 31, 2026?$5.05May 14, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 19, 2026?$5.03May 14, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$10.02May 14, 13:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $4.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 4, 19:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 2, 17:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".