Mushy-Doe
0x433b9d07210504760b35124d5a14ca10b669f372
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-14.9K
Realised
$-50.26
Win rate
32%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 187m?
11702 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-26.88
- YES
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 123m?
10250 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 22, 2025$0.00
$-50.99
- YES
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 167m and 177m?
9914 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-76.99
- YES
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
7690 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-7.69
- YES
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?
7006 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 22, 2025$0.00
$-74.98
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
6559 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-214.17
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
5463 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-17.69
- YES
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 177m and 187m?
5155 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-25.97
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 9, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
3294 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-32.86
Recent activity
- TAKER_REBATE$3.70Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$10.30Jul 22, 23:19 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$6.01Jul 22, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$15.25Jul 22, 23:16 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET$20.45Jul 22, 22:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET$15.38Jul 22, 22:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET$9.38Jul 22, 22:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET$15.35Jul 22, 22:17 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$4.87Jul 22, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$15.35Jul 22, 22:06 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET$25.09Jul 22, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET$20.31Jul 22, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$11.18Jul 22, 21:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$15.17Jul 22, 21:58 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$17.96Jul 22, 21:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$15.29Jul 22, 21:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$0.00Jul 22, 21:51 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$20.55Jul 22, 21:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$15.28Jul 22, 21:49 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$35.07Jul 22, 21:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
32% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $16.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 18:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.