Rowdy-Administration
0x4352fcdf18036c3ce58f6cac802a49e7ddbdc794
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
181
Open notional
$46.81
Total PnL
$-644.12
Realised
$123.43
Win rate
100%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 181- YES
SBF released from custody in 2026?
230 shares @ 7.4¢·now 4.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.79
$-6.21
- YES
Ledger IPO before 2027?
79 shares @ 15.0¢·now 10.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.91
$-3.95
- YES
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
19 shares @ 37.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.77
$-1.23
- YES
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
804 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.82
$-15.18
- YES
Databricks IPO before 2027?
66 shares @ 22.9¢·now 7.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.59
$-10.41
- YES
Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO before 2027?
46 shares @ 10.8¢·now 7.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.53
$-1.47
- YES
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
23 shares @ 22.0¢·now 13.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.95
$-2.05
- YES
Trump on $250 bill this year?
100 shares @ 10.0¢·now 2.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.75
$-7.25
- YES
Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
315 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.36
$-3.64
- YES
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?
30 shares @ 3.3¢·now 1.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.52
$-0.48
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?$7.82Jul 21, 12:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$29.98Jul 21, 12:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic$15.66Jul 10, 16:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?$20.78Jun 14, 12:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?$8.20Jun 8, 10:24 UTC
- TRADESELLRoland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev$9.91Jun 7, 14:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYRoland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev$10.26Jun 7, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYRoland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva$1.03Jun 6, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYRoland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva$5.13Jun 6, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta (META) close above $620 on June 4?$1.04Jun 4, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 4?$1.04Jun 4, 18:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on June 4?$1.02Jun 4, 18:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple (AAPL) close above $310 on June 4?$1.04Jun 4, 18:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft (MSFT) close above $430 on June 4?$1.03Jun 4, 18:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon (AMZN) close above $255 on June 4?$1.02Jun 4, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google (GOOGL) close above $370 on June 4?$1.03Jun 4, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 4?$1.04Jun 4, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 4?$1.04Jun 4, 18:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles?$19.58Jun 4, 18:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 2?$12.77Jun 2, 21:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $5.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 1, 11:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 12:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.