Numb-Compulsion
0x43e57b58acffb250e7157f5feb1fbca25d21fb67
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
40
Open notional
$303.74
Total PnL
$-47.95
Realised
$1.42
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- NO
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
53 shares @ 94.4¢·now 96.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$50.98
$0.98
- NO
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
46 shares @ 63.5¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$27.19
$-2.31
- NO
Will Michał Kwiatkowski finish top 3 in the 2026 Tour De France?
50 shares @ 99.0¢·now 53.3¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$26.65
$-22.85
- NO
Will Trump praise Allah again by July 31?
27 shares @ 74.9¢·now 86.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$23.22
$3.00
- NO
Will Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election?
21 shares @ 93.2¢·now 96.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$20.75
$0.72
- YES
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
17 shares @ 94.0¢·now 95.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$16.02
$0.31
- NO
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
18 shares @ 87.3¢·now 81.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.98
$-1.06
- YES
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
35 shares @ 28.3¢·now 40.9¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$14.48
$4.48
- NO
E. Jean Carroll federally charged by July 31, 2026?
13 shares @ 97.0¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$12.71
$0.22
- NO
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?
12 shares @ 88.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.28
$0.06
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Tobias Halland Johannessen finish top 3 in the 2026 Tour De France?$2.81Jul 22, 06:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill South African inflation be between 4.4% and 4.7% in 2026?$1.09Jul 22, 06:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill South African inflation be between 4.1% and 4.4% in 2026?$3.95Jul 22, 06:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Georg Zimmermann finish top 3 in the 2026 Tour De France?$2.40Jul 20, 20:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$2.41Jul 20, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lewis Askey finish top 3 in the 2026 Tour De France?$2.42Jul 20, 13:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Michał Kwiatkowski finish top 3 in the 2026 Tour De France?$49.52Jul 20, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYE. Jean Carroll federally charged by July 31, 2026?$12.51Jul 20, 13:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?$63.81Jul 20, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$4.02Jul 20, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$7.48Jul 20, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?$4.45Jul 20, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYVance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?$5.02Jul 20, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3.34Jul 20, 00:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Karol G perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?$5.00Jul 20, 00:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?$5.00Jul 20, 00:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$8.11Jul 20, 00:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026?$6.00Jul 19, 20:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 The Open Championship?$6.16Jul 19, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.86Jul 19, 11:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $5.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 10:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 06:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.