Lone-Abrogation
0x444939440fa29ff4d01e6e988f6d2718e10bd0f4
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$4.33
Total PnL
$-5.67
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
2 shares @ 43.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$1.99
$0.99
- NO
U.S. strike on Nigeria by February 28, 2026?
1 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$1.28
$0.28
- YES
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?
3 shares @ 33.0¢·now 19.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.58
$-0.42
- YES
Will Ubisoft announce bankruptcy by June 30?
12 shares @ 8.3¢·now 2.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.27
$-0.73
- YES
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?
3 shares @ 29.0¢·now 3.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.11
$-0.89
- YES
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
2 shares @ 49.0¢·now 5.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.10
$-0.90
- YES
New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Italy win?
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?
7 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
2 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?$0.72Feb 12, 15:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?$1.17Feb 9, 11:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?$1.40Feb 8, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?$1.00Feb 7, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? $1.00Feb 7, 11:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. strike on Nigeria by February 28, 2026?$1.00Feb 7, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?$1.00Feb 7, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?$1.00Feb 7, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?$1.00Feb 7, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ubisoft announce bankruptcy by June 30?$1.00Feb 7, 11:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?$1.00Feb 7, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?$1.00Feb 7, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?$1.00Feb 7, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?$1.00Feb 7, 10:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Italy win?$1.00Feb 7, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$1.00Feb 7, 10:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 16
- Avg trade size
- $1.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 7, 10:50 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 12, 15:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.