Incomplete-Hay
0x458f07972b0f27876fde185604150f429fda4792
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
52
Open notional
$51.48
Total PnL
$-131.03
Realised
$2.87
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 52- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
10 shares @ 80.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$8.04
$0.04
- YES
Over $1.2B crypto hack value in 2026?
7 shares @ 72.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$5.56
$0.56
- YES
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 51.0¢·now 22.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.31
$-5.69
- YES
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?
53 shares @ 19.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.95
$-6.05
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
5 shares @ 66.4¢·now 84.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.83
$0.82
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
5 shares @ 90.0¢·now 74.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.44
$-0.74
- YES
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?
10 shares @ 31.0¢·now 34.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$3.29
$0.29
- YES
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
28 shares @ 14.2¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.95
$-1.05
- YES
Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026?
59 shares @ 17.0¢·now 5.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.94
$-7.06
- NO
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
2 shares @ 92.9¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.04
$0.03
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$4.20Jul 1, 12:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$8.08Jul 1, 12:51 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$2.01Jul 1, 06:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$1.00Jul 1, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$5.32Jun 30, 23:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$3.95Jun 30, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$3.90Jun 25, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.13Jun 25, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$1.00Jun 25, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$2.00Jun 25, 20:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jun 25, 20:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1.00Jun 25, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?$2.00Jun 25, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?$2.01Jun 25, 20:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026?$16.03Jun 25, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?$1.53Jun 17, 22:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?$1.51Jun 17, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by June 30, 2026?$1.35Jun 16, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hyperliquid reach $76 in June?$1.07Jun 16, 13:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?$3.06Jun 16, 13:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $4.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 3, 16:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 12:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.