Helpful-Adoption
0x45b2cb2ae97f7dd81aa20058337a7a8b29b4cbc1
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
28
Open notional
$8.4K
Total PnL
$5.3K
Realised
$81.79
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- NO
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
1764 shares @ 17.0¢·now 74.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.3K
$1.0K
- NO
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
1332 shares @ 15.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$939.06
- NO
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?
842 shares @ 19.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$804.11
$644.13
- NO
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?
1052 shares @ 19.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$794.26
$594.38
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?
708 shares @ 22.0¢·now 98.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$696.68
$540.92
- NO
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?
1156 shares @ 19.0¢·now 56.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$647.36
$427.72
- NO
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?
727 shares @ 20.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$592.72
$447.25
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
588 shares @ 17.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$532.14
$432.18
- NO
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026?
1052 shares @ 19.0¢·now 48.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$504.96
$305.08
- NO
Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2027?
540 shares @ 17.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$483.21
$391.43
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill "Minions & Monsters" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 20m?$0.00Jul 23, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill anyone say "Pillow" during Big Brother E2?$0.00Jul 23, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alvin Kamara be traded?$0.00Jul 23, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 13?$0.00Jul 23, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on July 13?$0.00Jul 23, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 13?$0.00Jul 23, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 12?$0.00Jul 23, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 12?$0.00Jul 23, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 10?$0.00Jul 23, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 12?$0.00Jul 23, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 12?$0.00Jul 23, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 12?$0.00Jul 23, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 10?$0.00Jul 23, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 12?$0.00Jul 23, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 11?$0.00Jul 23, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?$0.00Jul 23, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on July 13?$0.00Jul 23, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 10?$0.00Jul 23, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 13?$0.00Jul 23, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Al Carns be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?$0.00Jul 23, 17:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
16 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 16
- Avg trade size
- $11.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 21:39 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 17:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.