Fitting-Oregano
0x465ad490ed660186bcf663ea43a15145789f6a39
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$4.4K
Total PnL
$542.41
Realised
$193.70
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?
2175 shares @ 65.9¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.7K
$251.96
- YES
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?
2000 shares @ 35.6¢·now 40.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$810.00
$97.00
- YES
Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?
900 shares @ 62.3¢·now 46.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$414.00
$-147.00
- YES
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?
1307 shares @ 18.8¢·now 26.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$339.86
$94.57
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
6000 shares @ 5.0¢·now 4.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$291.00
$-11.99
- YES
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?
385 shares @ 81.0¢·now 75.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$288.75
$-23.00
- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2500 shares @ 4.2¢·now 9.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$231.24
$127.12
- YES
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?
1500 shares @ 9.3¢·now 11.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$165.00
$25.00
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1250 shares @ 17.2¢·now 11.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$145.62
$-69.37
- YES
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch?
882 shares @ 7.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$66.12
$4.41
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.06Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 18, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYExtended FDV above $800M one day after launch?$35.17Jul 16, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYExtended FDV above $800M one day after launch?$1.00Jul 16, 14:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 13, 00:15 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.30Jul 12, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
16 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 16
- Avg trade size
- $64.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 00:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.