Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?
Probability
60¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$814.31
Liquidity
$3.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5968.1h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 60¢.
Biggest hourly move: -17.0pp at 16:00 (to 60¢).
Show top 8 of 49 hourly moves
- 23:00 · -15.0pp → 60¢
- 21:00 · -14.5pp → 60¢
- 20:00 · -17.0pp → 60¢
- 18:00 · -16.0pp → 60¢
- 17:00 · -15.0pp → 60¢
- 16:00 · -17.0pp → 60¢
- 2d ago · -16.0pp → 60¢
- 3d ago · +15.0pp → 77¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Extended, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.