Novel-Chitchat
0x4755072010b0a6963d5140b4c34ba6a544664338
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$49.1K
Total PnL
$-4.4K
Realised
$-5.1K
Win rate
57%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
18000 shares @ 97.8¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$17.9K
$318.44
- NO
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
12044 shares @ 98.5¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$12.0K
$150.18
- NO
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?
10000 shares @ 97.6¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$10.0K
$205.31
- NO
Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?
7926 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$7.9K
$27.15
- NO
Will four or more people dissent the June Fed decision?
884 shares @ 98.7¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$882.09
$9.06
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
243 shares @ 97.3¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$241.30
$5.34
- NO
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
147 shares @ 91.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$134.41
$0.73
- NO
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?
62 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$61.36
$0.12
- NO
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the June meeting?
31 shares @ 95.2¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$30.96
$1.41
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 1.5¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$20.50
$5.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?$61.23Jun 13, 21:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?$6.9KJun 13, 16:48 UTC
- MERGEWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$5.0KJun 13, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$31.49Jun 13, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?$496.20Jun 13, 16:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI be acquired before 2027?$46.39Jun 13, 14:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI be acquired before 2027?$93.20Jun 13, 14:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI be acquired before 2027?$93.20Jun 13, 14:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI be acquired before 2027?$93.20Jun 13, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?$0.85Jun 13, 04:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI be acquired before 2027?$7.55Jun 12, 22:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less than $100?$545.99Jun 12, 22:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250?$369.22Jun 12, 22:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX raise less than $40B in its IPO?$2.5KJun 12, 21:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?$2.0KJun 12, 20:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?$1.00Jun 12, 12:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$42.18Jun 12, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?$999.04Jun 12, 09:00 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?$114.02Jun 12, 09:00 UTC
- MERGEFed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?$1.0KJun 12, 09:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $460.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 8, 21:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 21:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.