Costly-Quart
0x480f54a786e6abbc6d8d1efcfd9a52b213767c91
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$291.99
Total PnL
$3.28
Realised
$20.07
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- NO
Will Jérôme Guedj be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
146 shares @ 85.9¢·now 88.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$128.11
$3.11
- NO
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?
68 shares @ 70.5¢·now 70.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$47.61
$-0.37
- NO
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
27 shares @ 78.6¢·now 65.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$17.77
$-3.73
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 72.7¢·now 90.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$13.58
$2.68
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
17 shares @ 67.4¢·now 64.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$11.11
$-0.59
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18?
12 shares @ 86.3¢·now 95.2¢·exp May 18, 2026$11.03
$1.03
- YES
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
17 shares @ 58.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$9.95
$0.09
- NO
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?
12 shares @ 85.0¢·now 83.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$9.76
$-0.24
- YES
Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
20 shares @ 46.0¢·now 49.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$9.75
$0.60
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
10 shares @ 93.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$9.35
$0.05
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$4.60May 18, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?$8.90May 18, 11:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$6.70May 18, 11:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$5.00May 18, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?$0.73May 18, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?$0.29May 18, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x China tariff agreement by May 31?$4.15May 18, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?$2.47May 18, 10:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?$5.00May 18, 10:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?$10.06May 18, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?$2.02May 18, 10:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18?$10.10May 18, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$9.30May 18, 09:59 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$9.20May 18, 09:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17?$11.19May 17, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paris FC win on 2026-05-17?$2.01May 17, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 24?$3.70May 17, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 24?$3.80May 17, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17?$4.00May 17, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17?$1.01May 17, 10:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $7.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 10, 20:01 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 11:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".