Costly-Quart
0x480f54a786e6abbc6d8d1efcfd9a52b213767c91
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$288.46
Total PnL
$-222.85
Realised
$71.29
Win rate
96%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Jérôme Guedj be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
57 shares @ 85.9¢·now 93.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$53.62
$4.38
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
54 shares @ 93.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$53.58
$3.58
- NO
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?
23 shares @ 70.5¢·now 79.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.18
$1.94
- YES
Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
20 shares @ 46.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$17.51
$8.36
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
14 shares @ 53.0¢·now 97.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$14.04
$6.39
- NO
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
15 shares @ 66.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$11.63
$1.72
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?
13 shares @ 77.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$11.23
$1.23
- NO
Will Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?
11 shares @ 87.1¢·now 86.3¢·exp Oct 3, 2026$9.91
$-0.09
- SPAIN
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
24 shares @ 41.0¢·now 40.4¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$9.85
$-0.15
- NO
Will the DEFIANCE Act become law this year?
10 shares @ 43.0¢·now 66.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.60
$2.30
Recent activity
- TRADESELLClarity Act signed into law in 2026?$3.80Jul 13, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Team to Advance$10.29Jul 12, 17:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?$1.54Jul 11, 18:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?$3.00Jul 8, 18:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Morocco: Team to Advance$5.12Jul 8, 15:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Morocco: Team to Advance$15.35Jul 7, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?$1.01Jul 7, 06:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 7, 06:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$1.80Jul 6, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Morocco: Team to Advance$5.12Jul 5, 12:45 UTC
- REDEEMOver $35M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?$3.09Jul 4, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYCanada vs. Morocco: Team to Advance$2.04Jul 4, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canada win on 2026-07-04?$1.02Jul 4, 17:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$1.10Jul 4, 14:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?$3.40Jul 4, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?$2.00Jul 4, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Phoebe Bridgers attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$2.05Jul 4, 14:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?$10.16Jul 4, 09:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$1.23Jul 4, 09:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYCanada vs. Morocco: Team to Advance$1.02Jul 4, 08:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
48/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
96% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $4.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 06:39 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 16:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.