Pricey-Girdle
0x4821f344d442e830e6738430d6f42c1762026ab1
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
85
Open notional
$247.58
Total PnL
$-751.94
Realised
$-33.84
Win rate
29%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 85- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
98 shares @ 65.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$61.54
$-2.46
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
160 shares @ 20.9¢·now 29.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$47.20
$13.80
- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
117 shares @ 30.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$29.78
$-5.22
- YES
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
217 shares @ 16.3¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$29.24
$-6.02
- YES
Israel military action against Yemen by July 31?
100 shares @ 8.8¢·now 17.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$17.50
$8.70
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
60 shares @ 25.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$14.10
$-0.90
- YES
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026?
79 shares @ 13.0¢·now 12.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.59
$-0.70
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
100 shares @ 10.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.50
$-0.50
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 9.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.25
$-0.25
- YES
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
50 shares @ 9.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.25
$-0.25
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$5.00Jul 23, 02:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?$10.60Jul 22, 21:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?$7.63Jul 22, 21:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYTotal Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026?$9.10Jul 21, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYTotal Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026?$1.19Jul 21, 19:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$11.11Jul 21, 19:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$1.12Jul 21, 19:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYHengam Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$1.12Jul 21, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$1.14Jul 21, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran invades Kuwait by July 31?$1.08Jul 21, 19:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$4.50Jul 21, 19:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$11.20Jul 21, 19:25 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by August 31?$12.90Jul 21, 19:24 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 31?$6.00Jul 21, 19:23 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$1.60Jul 20, 17:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$2.70Jul 18, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?$9.30Jul 17, 21:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?$3.54Jul 17, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$4.40Jul 17, 18:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$10.00Jul 17, 18:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $6.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 20:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 02:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.