0x488611ae02f8844b03490a0a09ef8eae69c3ae21
0x488611ae02f8844b03490a0a09ef8eae69c3ae21
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
22
Open notional
$12.75
Total PnL
$-30.25
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will Nate Ament be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?
252 shares @ 0.4¢·now 1.3¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$3.15
$2.15
- YES
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?
89 shares @ 1.1¢·now 3.1¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$2.75
$1.75
- NO
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
6 shares @ 35.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.54
$0.54
- YES
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?
127 shares @ 1.6¢·now 1.6¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$1.97
$-0.03
- NO
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
1 shares @ 71.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$1.40
$0.40
- YES
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.70
$-0.30
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.25
$-0.75
- YES
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 3 Jordan?
570 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
286 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
250 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMGrass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala$2.17Jun 17, 19:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova$1.02Jun 17, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala$1.03Jun 17, 09:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYHalle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci$1.03Jun 17, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? $1.06Jun 17, 08:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gregory Jaczko be the Democratic nominee for DC Delegate?$1.05Jun 17, 07:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kinney Zalesne be the Democratic nominee for DC Delegate?$1.05Jun 17, 07:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gregory Jaczko be the Democratic nominee for DC Delegate?$1.05Jun 17, 07:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kinney Zalesne be the Democratic nominee for DC Delegate?$1.05Jun 17, 07:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?$1.06Jun 17, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?$1.06Jun 17, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trent Holbrook be the Democratic nominee for DC Delegate?$1.05Jun 17, 05:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trent Holbrook be the Democratic nominee for DC Delegate?$1.05Jun 17, 05:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?$1.06Jun 17, 05:33 UTC
- REDEEMDetroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5$2.33Jun 17, 05:26 UTC
- REDEEMDetroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5$3.92Jun 17, 05:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?$7.69Jun 17, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nate Ament be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?$1.04Jun 17, 04:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Austria 0 - 3 Jordan?$1.04Jun 17, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Austria 0 - 3 Jordan?$1.04Jun 17, 03:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $1.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 16, 13:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 19:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.