Loving-Hate
0x48c4eb13fe07ea639df857bc82258ef5a47219e5
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
200
Open notional
$663.07
Total PnL
$-15.67
Realised
$0.08
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
38 shares @ 91.7¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$36.05
$1.05
- NO
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
20 shares @ 75.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.70
$0.70
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
14 shares @ 68.8¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.52
$2.68
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
13 shares @ 78.5¢·now 89.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$11.39
$1.39
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
11 shares @ 94.6¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.54
$0.53
- NO
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
11 shares @ 91.1¢·now 95.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.51
$0.51
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
12 shares @ 84.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$10.30
$0.30
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
15 shares @ 66.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.23
$0.23
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
10 shares @ 96.2¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.19
$0.19
- YES
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
12 shares @ 86.1¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.05
$0.05
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down 12+ times in July?$5.16Jul 28, 07:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude go down 12+ times in July?$29.61Jul 28, 07:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude go down 6-8 times in July?$0.00Jul 28, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026?$0.00Jul 26, 02:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?$0.00Jul 26, 02:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?$7.46Jul 24, 19:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?$2.20Jul 24, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 24, 07:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYTotal Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026?$5.00Jul 24, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYTotal Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 24, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?$7.00Jul 24, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2.00Jul 24, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump deport 300-400k people?$2.01Jul 24, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?$5.06Jul 24, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYNYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?$5.03Jul 24, 07:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?$5.02Jul 24, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?$5.06Jul 24, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYNext Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?$3.02Jul 24, 07:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYNext Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?$3.07Jul 24, 07:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?$10.06Jul 24, 07:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $4.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 20:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 07:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.