PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will Trump deport 300-400k people?

Probability

48¢

-0.5pp

24h

-2.0pp

24h Vol

$247.48

Liquidity

$32.8K

Probability (last 7 days)

+11.5pp 7d

Apr 18, 2026, 01:00Apr 24, 2026, 23:50

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 6000.2h
LOW
23:50Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6000h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
23:50Price
Probability up 6.5pp
to 48¢
MEDIUM
22:00Price
Probability up 7.0pp
to 49¢
MEDIUM
20:00Price
Probability up 8.5pp
to 47¢
MEDIUM
18:00Price
Probability up 11.0pp
to 50¢
MEDIUM
17:00Price
Probability up 12.0pp
to 50¢
MEDIUM
16:00Price
Probability up 11.5pp
to 50¢
MEDIUM
14:00Price
Probability up 12.0pp
to 50¢
MEDIUM
13:00Price
Probability up 13.0pp
to 51¢
MEDIUM
12:00Price
Probability up 12.0pp
to 50¢
MEDIUM
11:00Price
Probability up 12.5pp
to 50¢
MEDIUM
10:00Price
Probability up 12.0pp
to 49¢
MEDIUM
09:00Price
Probability up 12.0pp
to 49¢
MEDIUM
08:00Price
Probability up 12.5pp
to 50¢
MEDIUM
07:00Price
Probability up 12.0pp
to 49¢
MEDIUM
05:00Price
Probability up 10.5pp
to 49¢
MEDIUM
03:00Price
Probability up 10.0pp
to 50¢
MEDIUM
02:00Price
Probability up 10.0pp
to 50¢
MEDIUM
00:00Price
Probability up 10.0pp
to 50¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 10.0pp
to 50¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 9.5pp
to 49¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 9.5pp
to 49¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 9.5pp
to 49¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 10.0pp
to 49¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 10.0pp
to 49¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 11.5pp
to 50¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 14.0pp
to 50¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 14.0pp
to 50¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 14.0pp
to 50¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventHow many people will Trump deport in 2026?

Category · Politics

Market Description

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Dec 31, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: the number of non citizens removed by UAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

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Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

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