Smug-Policeman
0x49f079878c0cf78a928b5565284fdbc6334fb403
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$407.94
Total PnL
$-5.15
Realised
$-0.77
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?
387 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$386.81
$0.19
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
2 shares @ 96.3¢·now 97.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.20
$0.03
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
2 shares @ 96.9¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.06
$0.06
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
2 shares @ 92.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.97
$-0.03
- NO
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
2 shares @ 98.3¢·now 98.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.80
$-0.00
- NO
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in July?
2 shares @ 99.6¢·now 96.4¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$1.65
$-0.06
- NO
Will Jean Silva fight Alexander Volkanovski next?
2 shares @ 99.6¢·now 92.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.48
$-0.12
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
1 shares @ 95.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.29
$-0.01
- NO
Will Lahesio Bonfim win the Governor of Maranhão election?
1 shares @ 98.3¢·now 97.6¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$1.24
$-0.01
- NO
Will Manel Kape be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 97.9¢·now 94.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.22
$-0.05
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?$386.61Jul 28, 18:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 28?$1.15Jul 28, 16:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 28?$1.10Jul 27, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$1.00Jul 27, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$1.30Jul 27, 10:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?$7.63Jul 26, 10:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?$18.96Jul 26, 07:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?$260.00Jul 26, 02:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$2.70Jul 25, 18:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?$95.38Jul 25, 16:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?$2.13Jul 25, 02:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 23?$1.41Jul 23, 16:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 23?$1.01Jul 23, 16:23 UTC
- REDEEMTurkiye vs. Canada$1.25Jul 23, 13:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be at least 58 million?$1.40Jul 22, 10:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $85.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 05:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.