Crooked-Balaclava
0x4a0e71391b98c3d43dda90a82ca02528e228bac9
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-61.44
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 18 be between 90 and 95?
315 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.04
- NO
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
95 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-39.90
- NO
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
46 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
30 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15?
10 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-4.50
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?$4.76Jun 9, 09:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?$2.30Jun 9, 01:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?$0.38Jun 8, 19:39 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$144.00Jun 8, 19:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?$195.13Jun 8, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?$0.27Jun 6, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$66.00May 23, 20:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?$40.00May 23, 18:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?$20.11May 23, 18:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?$1.26May 23, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?$1.86May 23, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?$3.76May 23, 18:07 UTC
- TRADESELLUS takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?$0.87May 20, 19:20 UTC
- TRADESELLHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$157.40May 20, 19:19 UTC
- REDEEMConfirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?$20.01May 20, 19:18 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.34May 19, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$200.60May 18, 16:26 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?$3.21May 14, 02:53 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?$1.36May 14, 02:18 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?$5.38May 14, 02:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $28.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 11, 17:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 9, 09:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.