Incomplete-Cormorant
0x4c490a3b6ed4924b2eab1d420fb30f0c21df0203
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
25
Open notional
$142.69
Total PnL
$-65.98
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- NO
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.50 Week of July 6 2026?
77 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$77.08
$0.08
- YES
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of July 6 above $215?
54 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$54.05
$0.05
- NO
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?
12 shares @ 43.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$11.56
$6.56
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?
2000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 25?
1415 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.83
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 25?
1234 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.47
- NO
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?
1125 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-4.50
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?
879 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.76
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.50 Week of July 6 2026?$77.00Jul 10, 05:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon (AMZN) finish week of July 6 above $215?$54.00Jul 10, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-11?$5.14Jul 10, 05:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 22 above $430?$136.21Jul 10, 05:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 22 above $430?$136.00Jun 26, 06:26 UTC
- REDEEMHeilbronn: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Pedro Martinez$9.23Jun 26, 06:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?$12.13Jun 26, 06:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 1?$13.31Jun 26, 06:13 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$101.10Jun 26, 06:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$101.00Jun 1, 07:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYHeilbronn: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Pedro Martinez$6.06Jun 1, 07:26 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs$9.11Jun 1, 07:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?$13.03Jun 1, 07:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$85.08Jun 1, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$85.00May 31, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs$4.17May 31, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 1?$13.30May 31, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?$12.12May 31, 07:25 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?$114.34May 31, 07:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?$114.00May 28, 10:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $73.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 10:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 05:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.