Substantial-Derivative
0x4c4ed99ced89e29721416b19d9f3b6c97cd4b978
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
53
Open notional
$54.89
Total PnL
$89.50
Realised
$72.78
Win rate
50%
44 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- YES
Will Hamarkameratene win on 2026-03-22?
23 shares @ 7.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$7.18
$5.59
- OVER 2.5
Blinkova vs. Jovic: Total Sets O/U 2.5
21 shares @ 1.1¢·now 29.2¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$6.04
$5.81
- NO
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?
5 shares @ 84.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$3.82
$-0.22
- YES
Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Hamarkameratene end in a draw?
7 shares @ 13.0¢·now 45.5¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$3.39
$2.42
- YES
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?
4 shares @ 27.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.08
$1.90
- NO
Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22?
3 shares @ 75.4¢·now 92.9¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$3.06
$0.58
- YES
Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?
5 shares @ 54.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$2.88
$0.17
- YES
Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
3 shares @ 30.4¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jan 10, 2027$2.75
$1.74
- YES
Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?
4 shares @ 14.1¢·now 52.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$2.17
$1.58
- YES
Will Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan be arrested in 2026?
5 shares @ 30.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$2.14
$0.59
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Brandon Perce win The Bachelorette Season 22?$0.00Jun 13, 16:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brian Cole be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?$0.13Jun 10, 00:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?$0.00Jun 9, 12:43 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Arsenal WFC (-2.5)$0.00Jun 9, 12:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Moise Kean be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season?$0.00Jun 9, 12:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Scream 7 be the February film with the highest domestic gross on March 31?$0.00Jun 9, 12:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Taylor Swift have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?$0.00Jun 9, 12:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Austin Scott be the Republican nominee for GA-08?$0.00Jun 9, 12:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netflix reach $368 in March?$0.00Jun 9, 12:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill March 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?$0.00Jun 9, 12:42 UTC
- REDEEMCD Tolima vs. Fortaleza CEIF: O/U 4.5$0.00Jun 9, 12:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31?$0.00Jun 9, 12:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla reach $435 in March?$0.00Jun 9, 12:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 1840-1919 tweets in April 2026?$0.00Jun 9, 12:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Moderates win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?$0.00Jun 9, 12:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Morten Messerschmidt be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?$0.00Jun 9, 12:42 UTC
- REDEEMRed Bull Bragantino vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5$0.00Jun 9, 12:42 UTC
- REDEEMCA Mineiro vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 4.5$0.00Jun 9, 12:42 UTC
- REDEEMIndependiente Medellín vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 4.5$0.00Jun 9, 12:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill FC Augsburg be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?$0.00Jun 9, 12:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $0.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 12:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 16:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 44 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.