Absolute-Bellows
0x4c9ef5aa21840180f0dacaeed6ab8d1978658a70
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$950.28
Total PnL
$-256.01
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
300 shares @ 76.7¢·now 74.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$223.50
$-6.50
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 74.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$133.00
$-15.00
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
400 shares @ 45.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$122.00
$-58.00
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
400 shares @ 44.3¢·now 25.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$102.00
$-75.00
- NO
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?
100 shares @ 77.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$76.50
$-0.50
- YES
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
200 shares @ 25.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$56.98
$6.98
- YES
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
100 shares @ 46.0¢·now 51.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$51.00
$5.00
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 50.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$47.50
$-2.50
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 38.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$37.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
200 shares @ 12.0¢·now 18.1¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$36.10
$12.10
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?$154.00May 20, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?$231.00May 20, 06:36 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 20, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 19, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?$50.00May 18, 12:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$72.00May 18, 11:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?$38.00May 18, 11:35 UTC
- REDEEMStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$300.00May 18, 07:43 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 16, 00:10 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.34May 15, 00:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 15, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump visit China by June 30?$337.08May 14, 14:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 13, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$158.00May 12, 03:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$34.00May 12, 02:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$217.50May 12, 02:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$18.00May 12, 02:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $128.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 29, 00:20 UTC
- Last active
- May 20, 06:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".