Fat-Cupcake
0x4e4203102fd7bde55ce1bcf9f1ef222e251949ed
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$108.9K
Total PnL
$-23.8K
Realised
$-101.47
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- NO
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
15000 shares @ 47.4¢·now 83.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$12.4K
$5.3K
- NO
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
8378 shares @ 70.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$7.2K
$1.3K
- NO
Ebola case in the US by June 30?
8358 shares @ 73.9¢·now 85.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$7.1K
$927.15
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
8000 shares @ 73.4¢·now 88.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$7.1K
$1.2K
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
8005 shares @ 61.4¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.3K
$1.4K
- NO
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election?
6054 shares @ 92.9¢·now 97.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.9K
$270.05
- NO
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
6965 shares @ 76.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.5K
$243.79
- NO
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?
5800 shares @ 87.6¢·now 86.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.0K
$-91.55
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
5000 shares @ 90.0¢·now 95.7¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$4.8K
$285.00
- NO
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
5005 shares @ 77.1¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.6K
$745.22
Recent activity
- REWARD$2.14Jun 13, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMTrump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?$9.0KJun 12, 14:05 UTC
- REDEEMTrump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?$6.6KJun 12, 13:47 UTC
- REWARD$3.76Jun 12, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$0.99Jun 11, 18:11 UTC
- REWARD$6.33Jun 11, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$5.39Jun 10, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?$5.2KJun 9, 18:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026?$100.00Jun 9, 16:13 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$4.35Jun 9, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$7.03Jun 9, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$25.50Jun 8, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?$276.00Jun 8, 05:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?$3.89Jun 8, 05:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?$220.80Jun 8, 05:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?$6.02Jun 8, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?$263.38Jun 8, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?$5.90Jun 8, 01:18 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$7.72Jun 8, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$13.07Jun 8, 00:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $422.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 6, 15:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.