Any-Government
0x5040b5e76b45aeff6ccbb21b1aad0ccc2fa296cf
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
24
Open notional
$883.79
Total PnL
$19.03
Realised
$-18.69
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- YES
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
250 shares @ 52.6¢·now 46.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$115.00
$-16.50
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
100 shares @ 83.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$83.50
$0.50
- NO
Will Lamine Yamal score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100 shares @ 81.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$81.49
$0.49
- YES
Will the final be FRA vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
200 shares @ 28.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$67.00
$11.00
- YES
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
200 shares @ 30.3¢·now 33.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$67.00
$6.50
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?
100 shares @ 37.7¢·now 63.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$63.78
$25.90
- YES
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
100 shares @ 59.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$59.50
$0.50
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?
156 shares @ 22.8¢·now 34.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$54.27
$18.74
- YES
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
153 shares @ 36.9¢·now 34.6¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$52.84
$-3.58
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
200 shares @ 16.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$33.00
$1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$4.23Jul 14, 06:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$0.77Jul 14, 06:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$20.86Jul 14, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$36.99Jul 14, 06:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$5.01Jul 14, 06:00 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$3.77Jul 14, 06:00 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 15?$7.00Jul 14, 06:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$9.50Jul 14, 05:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$37.90Jul 14, 05:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$7.24Jul 14, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$20.49Jul 14, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$5.19Jul 14, 04:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$0.34Jul 14, 02:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$1.69Jul 14, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$35.05Jul 13, 22:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$6.14Jul 13, 22:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$11.24Jul 13, 22:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$1.58Jul 13, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$21.16Jul 13, 22:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $19.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 16:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 06:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.