Gummy-Yang
0x53f8cf9ce9385e4a483780cabfbd4fbab64a5ce0
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
77
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$54.66
Realised
$-16.53
Win rate
15%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 77- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
146 shares @ 70.0¢·now 69.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$100.70
$-1.47
- YES
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
105 shares @ 68.2¢·now 94.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$99.50
$27.96
- NO
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
147 shares @ 50.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$72.82
$-0.74
- NO
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
111 shares @ 71.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$72.50
$-6.09
- YES
Will Ed Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?
41 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$40.91
$15.14
- NO
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
45 shares @ 80.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$38.02
$1.81
- NO
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
46 shares @ 79.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$35.91
$-0.70
- NO
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?
41 shares @ 68.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$28.79
$1.02
- NO
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
27 shares @ 69.4¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$23.26
$4.80
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
25 shares @ 81.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.87
$0.75
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?$4.17Jul 25, 20:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?$10.67Jul 24, 22:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$3.41Jul 24, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$8.65Jul 24, 14:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$8.52Jul 24, 14:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?$3.59Jul 24, 13:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?$2.25Jul 24, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$10.23Jul 24, 09:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?$4.83Jul 24, 03:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?$3.85Jul 24, 01:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31?$4.33Jul 23, 19:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 31, 2026?$5.92Jul 23, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 31, 2026?$4.32Jul 23, 18:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$0.96Jul 23, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31?$10.38Jul 23, 15:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$10.17Jul 23, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?$10.31Jul 23, 14:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
15% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $9.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 04:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.