Elementary-Court
0x5454ad6bfac606891b16fb13acd878cbd2d63805
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
67
Open notional
$1.7K
Total PnL
$-611.79
Realised
$393.42
Win rate
83%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 67- NO
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
400 shares @ 92.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$374.01
$6.00
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
419 shares @ 76.1¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$325.01
$5.81
- NO
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
636 shares @ 52.2¢·now 47.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$302.56
$-29.46
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
1200 shares @ 26.5¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$294.00
$-23.99
- YES
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?
300 shares @ 56.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$109.50
$-58.50
- NO
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
116 shares @ 82.6¢·now 81.5¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$94.78
$-1.22
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 62.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$57.50
$-4.50
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
500 shares @ 11.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$47.50
$-7.50
- YES
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
21181 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$31.77
$-116.50
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
39 shares @ 34.7¢·now 33.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.12
$-0.49
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$1.66Jul 23, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$10.56Jul 23, 19:46 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?$10.38Jul 21, 06:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$1.20Jul 21, 06:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$5.53Jul 19, 17:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$55.00Jul 19, 10:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$45.82Jul 19, 07:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$62.00Jul 19, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$10.00Jul 19, 05:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
- REWARD$1.74Jul 19, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win on 2026-07-18?$15.33Jul 18, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$33.72Jul 18, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$6.43Jul 18, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$3.98Jul 18, 19:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$4.29Jul 18, 19:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$0.54Jul 18, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2.49Jul 18, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$12.79Jul 18, 19:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $68.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 06:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 20:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.