Grand-Reasoning
0x54b56146656e7eef9da02b3a030c18e06e924b31
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$15.2K
Total PnL
$39.7K
Realised
$37.6K
Win rate
63%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
5000 shares @ 24.6¢·now 78.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$3.9K
$2.7K
- NO
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5177 shares @ 60.4¢·now 59.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.1K
$-45.30
- NO
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
2000 shares @ 89.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.8K
$30.00
- YES
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
4000 shares @ 35.0¢·now 37.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.5K
$114.01
- YES
Will Petr Yan fight Merab Dvalishvili next?
1500 shares @ 76.2¢·now 87.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.3K
$162.10
- YES
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
6617 shares @ 16.9¢·now 14.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$926.37
$-192.13
- YES
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
1000 shares @ 52.3¢·now 53.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$535.01
$12.23
- YES
Will Bad Bunny be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
3948 shares @ 12.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$493.51
$19.74
- YES
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
3000 shares @ 12.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$405.00
$45.00
- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3413 shares @ 7.8¢·now 9.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$315.66
$48.03
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.51Jul 29, 05:49 UTC
- TRADESELLCuban regime falls in 2026?$0.18Jul 29, 05:24 UTC
- TRADESELLCuban regime falls in 2026?$0.58Jul 29, 05:06 UTC
- TRADESELLCuban regime falls in 2026?$0.51Jul 29, 05:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.51Jul 29, 03:02 UTC
- TRADESELLCuban regime falls in 2026?$0.26Jul 29, 02:29 UTC
- TRADESELLCuban regime falls in 2026?$0.08Jul 29, 02:29 UTC
- TRADESELLCuban regime falls in 2026?$219.69Jul 29, 02:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$715.45Jul 29, 01:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$22.65Jul 29, 01:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$38.02Jul 29, 01:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$38.02Jul 29, 01:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.5KJul 29, 01:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.5KJul 29, 01:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$3.9KJul 29, 01:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$2.87Jul 29, 01:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$3.50Jul 29, 01:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.00Jul 29, 01:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$4.36Jul 29, 01:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$3.90Jul 29, 01:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$56.3K
Trades
1
Buy share
65%
Window
Jun 15, 06:50 UTC → Jul 7, 16:13 UTC
- BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$5.6K@85¢Jun 15, 06:46 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 7 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
65%
Sample
limited
7 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
$39.2K · 70% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $266.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 00:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 05:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.