Ornery-Communion
0x559e30aed27e0e61ab647ece26ae14903887fa1d
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
22
Open notional
$317.35
Total PnL
$-133.16
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- NO
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be at least 4.5%?
50 shares @ 77.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 20, 2027$47.25
$8.75
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
60 shares @ 84.5¢·now 77.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$46.35
$-4.35
- NO
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
60 shares @ 67.0¢·now 76.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$45.60
$5.40
- NO
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?
50 shares @ 87.8¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$42.75
$-1.15
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
60 shares @ 72.8¢·now 55.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.30
$-10.40
- YES
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting?
30 shares @ 98.2¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$29.71
$0.25
- NO
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 4.0% and 4.4%?
20 shares @ 51.5¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 20, 2027$18.10
$7.80
- NO
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%?
20 shares @ 80.7¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jan 19, 2027$14.51
$-1.63
- YES
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.5% and 2.7%?
35 shares @ 10.3¢·now 28.1¢·exp Jan 19, 2027$9.82
$6.21
- YES
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.2% and 2.4%?
163 shares @ 5.7¢·now 5.1¢·exp Jan 19, 2027$8.31
$-1.04
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?$20.00Jul 23, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%?$0.18Jul 21, 05:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$30.00Jul 20, 14:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?$20.00Jul 20, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%?$0.08Jul 17, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$9.33Jul 15, 06:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$9.33Jul 15, 06:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in June?$34.30Jul 14, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the UK’s 2026 inflation be at least 4.5%?$27.72Jul 13, 06:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 4.0% and 4.4%?$5.10Jul 13, 03:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 4.0% and 4.4%?$5.20Jul 13, 03:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the UK’s 2026 inflation be at least 4.5%?$10.78Jul 12, 03:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$6.40Jul 11, 22:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?$6.61Jul 11, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in June?$11.05Jul 11, 10:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.2% and 2.4%?$8.27Jul 10, 07:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill France win on 2026-07-09?$10.00Jul 9, 22:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win on 2026-07-09?$9.76Jul 9, 21:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$3.10Jul 9, 21:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.53Jul 9, 19:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $6.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 19:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 14:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.