Apprehensive-Amazon
0x55d8f3f6bd387df7c0cdcf8b40d01d95ae260cf5
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
89
Open notional
$1.1K
Total PnL
$-2.2K
Realised
$78.37
Win rate
58%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 89- NO
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
311 shares @ 78.8¢·now 75.0¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$233.02
$-11.82
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?
1361 shares @ 9.1¢·now 13.2¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$179.60
$56.16
- YES
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
1000 shares @ 14.3¢·now 14.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$139.50
$-3.86
- NO
Fed rate hike in 2026?
500 shares @ 51.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$122.50
$-132.50
- YES
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?
578 shares @ 15.8¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$89.57
$-2.04
- NO
Will Sabrina Carpenter be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?
50 shares @ 50.0¢·now 96.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$48.33
$23.32
- NO
Will Drake be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?
45 shares @ 50.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$42.46
$20.12
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?
2594 shares @ 5.0¢·now 1.6¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$40.21
$-90.23
- NO
Will Kendrick Lamar be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?
40 shares @ 50.0¢·now 81.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.74
$12.74
- YES
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?
250 shares @ 13.7¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$28.75
$-5.42
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?$148.27Jul 28, 23:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Drake be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?$3.26Jul 27, 17:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kendrick Lamar be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?$9.90Jul 20, 06:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?$16.56Jul 20, 06:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Drake be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?$1.00Jul 18, 23:43 UTC
- TRADESELLClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?$24.07Jul 13, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?$3.31Jul 2, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?$14.30Jul 2, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?$4.39Jul 2, 02:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Drake be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?$2.40Jun 23, 05:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$31.50Jun 17, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?$6.18Jun 17, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?$0.96Jun 17, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?$2.92Jun 17, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?$11.85Jun 17, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?$3.51Jun 17, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?$1.50Jun 17, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?$2.25Jun 17, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?$1.10Jun 17, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?$0.03Jun 17, 15:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
58% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $19.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 12, 20:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 23:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.