Will Sabrina Carpenter be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?
Probability
9¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
+4.5pp
24h Vol
$26.31
Liquidity
$4.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 9¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 17.7¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5984.2h
- 15:49SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.6pp
to 5¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 5¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 5¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.7pp
to 5¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.4pp
to 5¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.3pp
to 5¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.3pp
to 5¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.4pp
to 5¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.2pp
to 5¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.2pp
to 5¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.2pp
to 5¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.2pp
to 5¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.6pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.3pp
to 5¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.1pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.3pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.6pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.6pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.4pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.7pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 3¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number 1 artist on the Billboard 2026 Year-End Top Artists chart. If Billboard does not publish a 2026 Year-End Top Artists chart by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Billboard Year-End 2026 Top Artists Chart, once it becomes available.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the number 1 artist on the Billboard 2026 Year-End Top Artists chartAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (17.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).