Alive-Steeple
0x567059a47077c1925d21012189e5137239232b9c
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$700.39
Total PnL
$-915.93
Realised
$-7.49
Win rate
55%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- YES
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
1356 shares @ 18.1¢·now 17.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$239.38
$-5.62
- YES
Israel election: will Likud lose seats?
117 shares @ 85.5¢·now 88.5¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$103.56
$3.56
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
195 shares @ 28.8¢·now 50.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$98.44
$42.19
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
335 shares @ 30.2¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$72.01
$-29.24
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
114 shares @ 43.9¢·now 57.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$65.52
$15.52
- YES
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
249 shares @ 18.1¢·now 19.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$48.52
$3.52
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
97 shares @ 51.6¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$32.45
$-17.55
- YES
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?
291 shares @ 30.3¢·now 7.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$20.35
$-67.65
- YES
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
271 shares @ 3.7¢·now 4.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.69
$0.69
- YES
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
144 shares @ 21.6¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.37
$-21.83
Recent activity
- TRADESELLIran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?$53.91Jul 29, 08:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$50.00Jul 28, 13:51 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$23.44Jul 27, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?$10.00Jul 26, 21:39 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$67.59Jul 26, 21:38 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$38.33Jul 26, 12:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$10.00Jul 25, 23:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$19.35Jul 25, 23:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$5.00Jul 23, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$50.00Jul 23, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$20.00Jul 23, 20:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?$63.33Jul 23, 20:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?$74.64Jul 23, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$50.00Jul 23, 20:33 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$7.23Jul 23, 20:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?$34.17Jul 23, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?$10.00Jul 23, 20:30 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$21.53Jul 23, 20:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$5.00Jul 23, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$20.00Jul 23, 16:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
55% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $34.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 00:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 08:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.