Wallet digest

active

Activity score

76/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$2.30

Total PnL

$0.30

Realised

$0.00

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

NO
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?
2 shares @ 87.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$2.30
$0.30

Recent activity

TRADESELLWill Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?$3.91Apr 24, 16:13 UTC
TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?$8.10Apr 24, 16:13 UTC
TRADESELLIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?$1.88Apr 24, 16:13 UTC
TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$3.95Apr 24, 16:13 UTC
TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?$5.65Apr 24, 16:13 UTC
TRADESELLWill Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?$6.74Apr 24, 16:13 UTC
TRADESELLIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$1.33Apr 24, 16:13 UTC
TRADESELLWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$1.02Apr 24, 16:13 UTC
TRADESELLWill the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?$1.95Apr 24, 16:13 UTC
TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$11.95Apr 24, 16:13 UTC
TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$5.86Apr 24, 16:13 UTC
TRADESELLUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$4.56Apr 24, 16:13 UTC
TRADESELLWill Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?$0.31Apr 24, 16:13 UTC
TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$1.56Apr 24, 16:13 UTC
TRADESELLTrump out as President by June 30?$2.43Apr 24, 16:13 UTC
TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$2.52Apr 24, 16:13 UTC
TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?$2.02Apr 24, 16:13 UTC
TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by May 31?$1.97Apr 24, 16:13 UTC
TRADESELLUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?$2.05Apr 24, 16:13 UTC
TRADESELLWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$0.04Apr 24, 11:50 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

review

49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence0 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry0 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk68 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 49
Avg trade size: $1.50
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Apr 21, 19:30 UTC
Last active: Apr 24, 16:13 UTC
Win rate sample: 0 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 19:22:57 UTC·src:Polymarket Data