0x56fb9c9bd9a0acf35c9b207f57a8e790ede9f621
0x56fb9c9bd9a0acf35c9b207f57a8e790ede9f621
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
172
Open notional
$31.19
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$-381.17
Win rate
3%
153 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 172- NO
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
4 shares @ 99.9¢·now 98.4¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.35
$-0.07
- NO
Will João Bernardo Vieira win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
4 shares @ 99.9¢·now 97.9¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.33
$-0.09
- NO
Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
4 shares @ 99.9¢·now 97.3¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.30
$-0.12
- NO
Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
4 shares @ 99.9¢·now 97.3¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.30
$-0.12
- NO
Will FLING win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
4 shares @ 99.9¢·now 95.5¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.23
$-0.19
- NO
Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
4 shares @ 99.9¢·now 94.4¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.18
$-0.24
- NO
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
4 shares @ 99.9¢·now 93.5¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.13
$-0.29
- YES
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
4 shares @ 99.7¢·now 30.7¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$1.36
$-3.06
- NO
Bitcoin above 75,200 on May 23, 10AM ET?
37 shares @ 14.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-5.49
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
20 shares @ 43.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-8.81
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10PM ET$1.01Aug 16, 03:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10PM ET$1.00Aug 16, 02:55 UTC
- REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - August 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET$1.01Aug 16, 02:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - August 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET$1.00Aug 16, 02:10 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$1.03Aug 16, 01:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$1.00Aug 16, 01:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - August 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$1.00Aug 16, 01:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - August 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$1.01Aug 16, 01:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - August 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$1.00Aug 16, 01:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$1.00Aug 16, 01:40 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin above 63,400 on August 15, 9PM ET?$1.00Aug 16, 01:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin above 63,600 on August 15, 9PM ET?$1.00Aug 16, 01:25 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum above 1,900 on August 15, 9PM ET?$1.00Aug 16, 01:25 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$1.01Aug 16, 01:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$1.04Aug 16, 01:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$1.00Aug 16, 01:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$1.00Aug 16, 01:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum above 1,900 on August 15, 9PM ET?$1.00Aug 16, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above 63,400 on August 15, 9PM ET?$1.00Aug 16, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above 63,600 on August 15, 9PM ET?$1.00Aug 16, 00:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 153 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
153 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $1.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 15, 21:25 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 03:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 153 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.