Circular-Reform
0x58c85b9a2f357cb32d92cbb6443d552148060300
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.7K
Total PnL
$-823.06
Realised
$169.03
Win rate
54%
149 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Connie Chan receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?
109 shares @ 68.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$109.00
$34.26
- NO
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
90 shares @ 73.9¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$84.17
$17.68
- NO
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
75 shares @ 58.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$58.13
$14.63
- NO
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026?
60 shares @ 26.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$55.80
$40.20
- NO
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?
50 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$50.00
$11.50
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
80 shares @ 71.5¢·now 56.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$44.80
$-12.40
- NO
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
43 shares @ 47.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$43.13
$22.58
- NO
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?
52 shares @ 88.3¢·now 80.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$41.60
$-4.31
- NO
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
41 shares @ 59.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$40.62
$16.58
- NO
Will Daylight launch a token by September 30, 2026?
40 shares @ 50.0¢·now 96.7¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$38.68
$18.68
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 20, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 19, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
60/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
54% win rate over 149 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
149 closed markets, 54% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 149 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.