Will Connie Chan receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?
Probability
1¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$19.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
-10.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 899h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $19.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 899.4h
- 12:34SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 899h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 1¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 1¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 1¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 1¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 1¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 1¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.2pp
to 1¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 1¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.8pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.8pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.6pp
to 3¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).