Courageous-Median
0x5a40d84723fdfa6d5e91d78a576d9cba5772fbfe
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
36
Open notional
$0.97
Total PnL
$-145.28
Realised
$0.71
Win rate
17%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
92 shares @ 3.3¢·now 1.1¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$0.97
$-2.03
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?
1500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?
1031 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-12.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 28, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 28, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
580 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-4.06
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
571 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-5.85
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?$1.66Jul 24, 10:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?$2.48Jul 24, 10:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?$0.86Jul 24, 10:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3.00Jul 1, 20:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$12.50Jun 22, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?$3.13Jun 22, 04:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?$3.15Jun 22, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$3.36Jun 22, 04:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$4.37Jun 10, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$4.18Jun 10, 21:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?$4.18Jun 10, 21:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $3.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 1, 13:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 10:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.