Glum-Hippopotamus
0x5c3cff1d03a4c9805e388977618f12e559fad6b5
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$22.10
Total PnL
$-103.38
Realised
$-12.52
Win rate
0%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
10 shares @ 84.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.19
$0.19
- NO
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
24 shares @ 29.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.71
$-2.29
- NO
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $870 Week of August 17 2026?
4 shares @ 84.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$3.37
$0.37
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
4 shares @ 78.0¢·now 60.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$2.31
$-0.69
- YES
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?
15 shares @ 33.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.89
$-3.11
- YES
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
8 shares @ 74.0¢·now 20.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.62
$-4.38
- YES
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting?
17 shares @ 87.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- NO
UEFA Champions League: Unbeaten Champion
13 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the June meeting?
13 shares @ 59.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
13 shares @ 64.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-8.35
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,080 Week of August 17 2026?$2.48Aug 17, 12:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $870 Week of August 17 2026?$3.02Aug 17, 03:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,080 Week of August 17 2026?$3.04Aug 17, 03:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $160 Week of August 10 2026?$4.71Aug 14, 20:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $142.50 Week of August 10 2026?$5.41Aug 14, 20:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?$7.74Aug 13, 12:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $160 Week of August 10 2026?$4.02Aug 13, 04:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $142.50 Week of August 10 2026?$4.04Aug 13, 04:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July?$2.99Aug 12, 14:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?$0.00Aug 11, 15:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?$4.05Aug 10, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?$3.03Aug 9, 03:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?$3.03Aug 9, 03:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 700m and 800m by August 31?$5.32Aug 5, 04:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?$2.64Aug 3, 03:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in August?$4.44Aug 3, 00:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in August?$4.02Aug 2, 04:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 700m and 800m by August 31?$5.02Aug 2, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July?$2.03Aug 2, 02:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?$2.03Aug 2, 02:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $3.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 22:20 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 12:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.