Hospitable-Skullcap
0x5c847a495fc2cc40220fcdf79f83f0be9473b3a9
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
48
Open notional
$9.83
Total PnL
$4.25
Realised
$71.38
Win rate
7%
29 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 48- YES
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
70 shares @ 10.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.25
$-1.75
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
90 shares @ 1.1¢·now 2.4¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$2.12
$1.12
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 1.0¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$1.11
$0.11
- NO
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
27 shares @ 3.6¢·now 2.5¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.68
$-0.32
- YES
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
118 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.4¢·exp Sep 10, 2026$0.53
$-0.47
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
172 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$0.09
$-0.91
- NO
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the September interest rate announcement?
17 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.3¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$0.04
$-0.96
- YES
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement?
731 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$1.05Jul 19, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Argentina?$1.05Jul 19, 21:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$1.71Jul 19, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Argentina?$2.10Jul 19, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Argentina?$1.04Jul 19, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score AND Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?$1.00Jul 19, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Argentina?$1.04Jul 19, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Argentina?$1.04Jul 19, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in Second Half AND Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in First Half$1.00Jul 19, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Argentina?$1.05Jul 19, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina?$1.04Jul 19, 19:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Argentina?$1.05Jul 19, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina?$1.05Jul 19, 19:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Argentina?$1.05Jul 19, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Argentina?$1.05Jul 19, 19:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 19?$1.05Jul 19, 05:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$1.04Jul 19, 05:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?$1.05Jul 19, 04:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$16.97Jul 19, 03:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the September interest rate announcement?$1.05Jul 14, 09:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
7% win rate over 29 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
29 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 20, 22:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 21:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 29 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.