0x61306816e15043b2ace6a3e1db031e248ffaf1ed
0x61306816e15043b2ace6a3e1db031e248ffaf1ed
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$68.10
Total PnL
$-20.92
Realised
$-0.48
Win rate
25%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
15 shares @ 67.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$14.81
$4.81
- NO
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
10 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.02
$0.01
- NO
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?
11 shares @ 82.5¢·now 84.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.12
$0.16
- NO
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30?
5 shares @ 97.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.13
$0.13
- YES
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
1132 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.09
$-2.83
- NO
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PNL + AUR?
5 shares @ 99.8¢·now 97.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$4.76
$-0.14
- YES
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
27 shares @ 35.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.41
$-6.14
- YES
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
17 shares @ 8.9¢·now 19.4¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$3.28
$1.78
- YES
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
14 shares @ 36.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.26
$-1.74
- NO
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
2 shares @ 99.0¢·now 98.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.80
$-0.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.05Jul 8, 04:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$1.50Jul 8, 01:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.57Jul 7, 23:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.17Jul 6, 17:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?$0.03Jul 6, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?$5.13Jun 24, 16:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?$1.79Jun 24, 15:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Somos Perú (SP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?$3.42Jun 24, 15:03 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?$0.00Jun 24, 15:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?$0.00Jun 24, 15:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03?$0.00Jun 24, 15:02 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$0.08Jun 22, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?$1.50Jun 21, 15:35 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$0.01Jun 21, 08:37 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$0.03Jun 21, 08:27 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$0.00Jun 21, 08:22 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$0.00Jun 21, 08:16 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$0.00Jun 21, 08:13 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$0.00Jun 21, 08:10 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$0.03Jun 21, 07:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $0.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 21:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 8, 04:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.