Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?
Probability
53¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$8.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5996.5h
- 03:31SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5996h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 52¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 53¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 57¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 53¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 59¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 59¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 55¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 55¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 51¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 48¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 56¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 56¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 49¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mahmoud Abbas ceases to be President of the Palestinian National Authority for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mahmoud Abbas's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian National Authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (21.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).