Delirious-Toaster
0x63390cc3b0c70dc849d19323aa35a0046a04ad29
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
103
Open notional
$710.90
Total PnL
$-445.81
Realised
$12.68
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 103- YES
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
2400 shares @ 9.4¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$204.00
$-22.00
- YES
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?
2305 shares @ 6.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$126.77
$-11.47
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?
916 shares @ 9.1¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$77.88
$-5.42
- YES
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
1350 shares @ 5.3¢·now 5.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$67.50
$-3.70
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?
1700 shares @ 3.6¢·now 3.4¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$57.80
$-3.77
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
600 shares @ 9.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$51.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December?
1158 shares @ 3.6¢·now 3.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$42.25
$0.09
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?
300 shares @ 9.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$31.50
$4.50
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
145 shares @ 8.3¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.78
$1.68
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
55 shares @ 18.1¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.92
$2.97
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$1.14Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?$27.00Jul 28, 18:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?$52.00Jul 28, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?$0.25Jul 28, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?$3.78Jul 28, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?$40.00Jul 28, 04:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?$0.40Jul 27, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?$2.36Jul 27, 15:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?$14.54Jul 27, 14:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December?$21.56Jul 27, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?$36.00Jul 27, 04:01 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.26Jul 27, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$65.00Jul 26, 22:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in July?$4.67Jul 26, 22:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in July?$28.33Jul 26, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$24.00Jul 26, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?$31.08Jul 26, 21:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $10.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 17:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.