Amused-Sight-Bend
0x6365faf63d02cc1e4a58d278041a6f5cb923eba8
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
45
Open notional
$655.76
Total PnL
$65.06
Realised
$49.00
Win rate
67%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
110 shares @ 74.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$77.85
$-3.86
- YES
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?
81 shares @ 80.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$64.59
$-0.41
- YES
Will Kaitlin Olson – “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series?
392 shares @ 12.8¢·now 14.9¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$58.59
$8.59
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
64 shares @ 77.5¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$53.06
$3.19
- NO
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
68 shares @ 66.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$49.09
$4.09
- NO
Will The Odyssey win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?
103 shares @ 39.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Mar 14, 2027$40.51
$0.51
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
49 shares @ 57.4¢·now 71.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$35.15
$6.93
- NO
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
27 shares @ 91.1¢·now 94.2¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$25.58
$0.83
- YES
Will Andrew Scott be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
34 shares @ 74.2¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jan 21, 2027$24.43
$-0.57
- NO
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
26 shares @ 84.7¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$20.60
$-1.62
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by August 31?$1.95Aug 18, 01:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Eddie Speir be the FL-16 Republican nominee?$5.00Aug 18, 00:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sydney Gruters be the FL-16 Republican nominee?$5.00Aug 18, 00:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 18, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$5.00Aug 18, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?$5.00Aug 17, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?$5.05Aug 17, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?$5.05Aug 17, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?$5.05Aug 17, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?$5.05Aug 17, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?$5.05Aug 17, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?$5.05Aug 17, 21:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?$5.05Aug 17, 21:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?$5.05Aug 17, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?$5.05Aug 17, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?$5.05Aug 17, 21:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?$5.05Aug 17, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?$5.05Aug 17, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?$5.05Aug 17, 20:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$2.10Aug 17, 20:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $4.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 16, 04:41 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 01:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.