Instructive-Patience
0x63b458729c147394272006ca15755a0a635cee12
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
47
Open notional
$267.09
Total PnL
$-53.98
Realised
$12.12
Win rate
63%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 47- SPAIN
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
118 shares @ 40.5¢·now 40.4¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$47.50
$-0.15
- NO
Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?
147 shares @ 33.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$46.32
$-2.16
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
56 shares @ 44.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$31.95
$7.50
- NO
Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?
58 shares @ 41.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$23.55
$-0.29
- NO
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?
51 shares @ 46.6¢·now 44.9¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$23.08
$-0.92
- NO
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?
63 shares @ 38.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$14.69
$-9.06
- NO
Will England be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?
21 shares @ 56.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$11.48
$-0.10
- JACOBE SMITH
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Holland vs. Jacobe Smith (Welterweight, Main Card)
21 shares @ 54.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$10.71
$-0.86
- NO
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24 shares @ 44.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$10.26
$-0.12
- YES
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
8 shares @ 37.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$3.97
$1.12
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?$2.90Jul 14, 02:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $30M committed to the Credible public sale?$50.75Jul 14, 02:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$2.79Jul 14, 01:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$28.25Jul 14, 00:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?$2.84Jul 13, 23:16 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$2.94Jul 13, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Ferencvárosi TC (-2.5)$3.43Jul 13, 17:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Team to Advance$49.07Jul 13, 14:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?$1.35Jul 13, 14:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?$2.85Jul 13, 14:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$3.41Jul 13, 11:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYKitzbuehel: Martina Colmegna vs Tatjana Maria$2.96Jul 13, 10:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$2.90Jul 13, 10:21 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$30.02Jul 13, 09:31 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$31.33Jul 13, 08:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.94Jul 13, 07:06 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate hike in 2026?$3.33Jul 13, 05:21 UTC
- TRADESELLFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?$3.28Jul 13, 03:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.67Jul 12, 21:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?$4.06Jul 12, 20:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $11.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 18:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 02:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.