Portly-Begonia
0x645a91730f588c5586e8860936a7e3554303fd84
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
87
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-42.8K
Realised
$2.3K
Win rate
86%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 87- NO
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?
3252 shares @ 42.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.4K
- NO
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?
2824 shares @ 44.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.2K
- NO
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
2504 shares @ 43.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.1K
- NO
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
2359 shares @ 45.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.1K
- NO
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June?
2235 shares @ 37.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-831.56
- NO
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?
2208 shares @ 27.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.00
$-615.66
- NO
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June?
2195 shares @ 38.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-835.55
- NO
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?
2150 shares @ 50.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.1K
- NO
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
2144 shares @ 50.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.1K
- NO
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?
1937 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-833.64
Recent activity
- TRADESELLItaly Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?$172.62Jul 28, 21:34 UTC
- TRADESELLItaly Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?$24.51Jul 28, 21:34 UTC
- TRADESELLItaly Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?$33.93Jul 23, 08:01 UTC
- TRADESELLItaly Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?$8.46Jul 23, 02:44 UTC
- REWARD$2.53Jul 23, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLItaly Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?$180.68Jul 22, 13:09 UTC
- REWARD$1.40Jul 22, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLItaly Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?$1.63Jul 21, 19:23 UTC
- TRADESELLHaiti elections delayed again?$119.06Jul 20, 10:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?$200.54Jul 20, 10:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Stinky by July 31?$0.05Jul 20, 10:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Stinky by July 31?$236.07Jul 20, 10:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026?$0.02Jul 20, 09:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026?$313.94Jul 20, 09:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026?$4.62Jul 20, 07:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026?$38.48Jul 20, 07:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026?$10.10Jul 20, 07:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026?$38.50Jul 20, 07:51 UTC
- REWARD$2.75Jul 20, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?$1.00Jul 19, 20:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $110.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 21:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.