Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?
Probability
71¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$171.98
Liquidity
$25.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1444h with open resolution ambiguity.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1444.3h
- 19:42SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 1444h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 71¢.
Biggest hourly move: -13.0pp at 2d ago (to 65¢).
Show all 27 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:00 · +5.0pp → 71¢
- 17:00 · +5.0pp → 71¢
- 15:00 · +5.0pp → 71¢
- 14:00 · +5.0pp → 71¢
- 12:00 · +6.0pp → 71¢
- 11:00 · +6.5pp → 71¢
- 09:00 · -3.0pp → 71¢
- 08:00 · -3.0pp → 71¢
- 06:00 · -3.0pp → 71¢
- 1d ago · -6.0pp → 67¢
- 1d ago · -6.0pp → 67¢
- 1d ago · -6.0pp → 67¢
- 1d ago · -6.0pp → 67¢
- 1d ago · -6.0pp → 67¢
- 2d ago · -6.0pp → 67¢
- 2d ago · -5.5pp → 67¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 66¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 66¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 66¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 66¢
- 2d ago · -4.0pp → 66¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 66¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 65¢
- 2d ago · -13.0pp → 65¢
- 2d ago · -13.0pp → 65¢
- 2d ago · -13.0pp → 65¢
- 2d ago · -12.5pp → 65¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 25, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Official government informationOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
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