Haiti elections delayed again?
Probability
43¢
1h
-1.5pp
24h
+10.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$149.09
Probability (last 7 days)
-21.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 10pp over 24h
Now 43¢; -1.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 3030h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 58.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3029.9h
- 18:08SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 3030h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+1.5pp over the last 24h, now 43¢.
Biggest hourly move: -27.5pp at 2d ago (to 44¢).
Show all 17 hour-by-hour ticks
- 10:00 · -3.5pp → 41¢
- 08:00 · +3.5pp → 43¢
- 1d ago · -4.5pp → 33¢
- 1d ago · -7.0pp → 36¢
- 1d ago · -4.5pp → 38¢
- 1d ago · -7.5pp → 34¢
- 1d ago · -7.0pp → 35¢
- 2d ago · -7.5pp → 38¢
- 2d ago · -19.0pp → 36¢
- 2d ago · -17.0pp → 39¢
- 2d ago · -12.5pp → 41¢
- 2d ago · -9.5pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · -9.0pp → 36¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 39¢
- 2d ago · -6.5pp → 38¢
- 2d ago · -26.5pp → 43¢
- 2d ago · -27.5pp → 44¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
After earlier delays, the first round of the 2026 Haitian legislative and presidential elections is currently scheduled to be held on August 30, 2026, with a potential second round set for December 6, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first round of voting for the presidency or the national legislative bodies, including the Senate (Sénat) and the Chamber of Deputies (Chambre des Députés), is rescheduled to take place after August 30, 2026, or otherwise does not take place by August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary source of resolution for this market will be Official information from the Haitian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (58.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.