Elaborate-Recapitulation
0x6a3dfdb561e8ef2a84ea2da044a284765804e38c
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
171
Open notional
$342.88
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$-222.07
Win rate
21%
33 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 171- YES
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
755 shares @ 38.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$230.38
$-56.55
- YES
US x China Military clash before 2027?
816 shares @ 6.9¢·now 4.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$35.02
$-21.32
- YES
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
575 shares @ 6.6¢·now 4.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.88
$-14.12
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
1032 shares @ 3.4¢·now 1.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$14.96
$-20.04
- YES
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
115 shares @ 15.8¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.19
$-4.94
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
172 shares @ 5.8¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.64
$-3.36
- YES
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?
58 shares @ 8.6¢·now 6.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.01
$-0.99
- YES
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
11 shares @ 44.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.81
$-1.19
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?
63 shares @ 8.0¢·now 4.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.59
$-2.41
- YES
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
15 shares @ 24.6¢·now 14.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.14
$-1.62
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS strike on Cuba by December 31?$75.53Jul 18, 01:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYKim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?$3.00Jun 26, 02:03 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?$3.09Jun 26, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China blockade Taiwan in 2026?$2.00Jun 26, 02:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?$15.00Jun 26, 02:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?$16.71Jun 26, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?$5.00Jun 26, 01:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$10.00Jun 26, 01:59 UTC
- REDEEMStarmer out by June 22, 2026?$8.93Jun 26, 01:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by June 22, 2026?$5.09Jun 21, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the July interest rate announcement?$20.94Jun 20, 03:44 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strike on Cuba by December 31?$32.14Jun 20, 03:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?$5.14Jun 20, 02:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the July interest rate announcement?$1.05Jun 20, 02:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the July interest rate announcement?$5.24Jun 20, 02:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China's annual inflation in 2026 be at least 2.5%?$1.05Jun 11, 00:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYKim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?$35.00Jun 11, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?$47.19Jun 11, 00:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?$13.40Jun 11, 00:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?$10.00May 24, 17:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
21% win rate over 33 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
33 closed markets, 21% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $29.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 7, 13:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 18, 01:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 33 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.