Ornate-Column
0x6a8c0c0088106f2816f162bbe8fcc81ee0d4cbb0
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
73
Open notional
$1.4K
Total PnL
$-2.2K
Realised
$22.76
Win rate
100%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 73- YES
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
121226 shares @ 2.5¢·now 1.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.3K
$-1.7K
- NO
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
10 shares @ 93.4¢·now 93.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$9.47
$-0.03
- NO
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 American League Championship Series?
11 shares @ 85.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Nov 1, 2026$9.39
$-0.06
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
17 shares @ 54.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$7.50
$-1.81
- NO
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
6 shares @ 84.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.58
$0.86
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
5 shares @ 86.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.69
$-0.03
- YES
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
36 shares @ 8.8¢·now 7.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.48
$-0.66
- YES
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?
9 shares @ 53.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.24
$-2.41
- YES
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
9 shares @ 55.5¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.20
$-3.74
- YES
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
1 shares @ 43.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.23
$-0.23
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.14Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.14Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.14Jul 20, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.14Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.14Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.15Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.15Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.14Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.14Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.13Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.14Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.14Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.14Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.13Jul 9, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 8, 00:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$5.05Jul 7, 16:27 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 7, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$5.59Jul 6, 00:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 6, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.14Jul 5, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 04:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.