PoliticsExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Probability

54¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+1.5pp

24h Vol

$244.94

Liquidity

$35.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

+8.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 18:00Apr 25, 2026, 17:33
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Up 2pp over 24h

    Now 54¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5982.4h

    LOW
  • 17:34Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+1.5pp over the last 24h, now 54¢.

Biggest hourly move: -12.0pp at 1d ago (to 53¢).

Show all 19 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 03:00 · -5.0pp → 53¢
  • 02:00 · -7.5pp → 53¢
  • 00:00 · -7.5pp → 52¢
  • 23:00 · -7.5pp → 52¢
  • 21:00 · -5.0pp → 52¢
  • 20:00 · -7.5pp → 52¢
  • 18:00 · -10.0pp → 52¢
  • 1d ago · -10.0pp → 52¢
  • 1d ago · -11.0pp → 52¢
  • 1d ago · -10.0pp → 52¢
  • 1d ago · -12.0pp → 53¢
  • 1d ago · -6.5pp → 53¢
  • 1d ago · -4.0pp → 53¢
  • 1d ago · -5.0pp → 53¢
  • 2d ago · -5.5pp → 53¢
  • 2d ago · -8.5pp → 53¢
  • 2d ago · +3.0pp → 53¢
  • 2d ago · +5.5pp → 53¢
  • 2d ago · +7.5pp → 53¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWho will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
White HouseOfficial government sourceextracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
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